OmanEntrepreneur's Blog

Introducing The Lean Business Model

History Behind the Emergence of "Lean Business Model"

Although there are instances of rigorous process thinking in manufacturing all the way back to the Arsenal in Venice in the 1450s, the first person to truly integrate an entire production process was Henry Ford. At Highland Park, MI, in 1913 he married consistently interchangeable parts with standard work and moving conveyance to create what he called flow production. The public grasped this in the dramatic form of the moving assembly line, but from the standpoint of the  manufacturing engineer the breakthroughs actually went much further.

 

Ford lined up fabrication steps in process sequence wherever possible using special-purpose machines and go/no-go gauges to fabricate and assemble the components going into the vehicle within a few minutes, and deliver perfectly fitting components directly to line-side. This was a truly revolutionary break from the shop practices of the American System that consisted of general-purpose machines grouped by process, which made parts that eventually found their way into finished products after a good bit of tinkering (fitting) in subassembly and final assembly.

The problem with Ford’s system was not the flow: He was able to turn the inventories of the entire company every few days. Rather it was his inability to provide variety. The Model T was not just limited to one color. It was also limited to one specification so that all Model T chassis were essentially identical up through the end of production in 1926. (The customer did have a choice of four or five body styles, a drop-on feature from outside suppliers added at the very end of the production line.) Indeed, it appears that practically every machine in the Ford Motor Company worked on a single part number, and there were essentially no changeovers.

When the world wanted variety, including model cycles shorter than the 19 years for the Model T, Ford seemed to lose his way. Other automakers responded to the need for many models, each with many options, but with production systems whose design and fabrication steps regressed toward process areas with much longer throughput times. Over time they populated their fabrication shops with larger and larger machines that ran faster and faster, apparently lowering costs per process step, but continually increasing throughput times and inventories except in the rare case—like engine machining lines—where all of the process steps could be linked and automated. Even worse, the time lags between process steps and the complex part routings required ever more sophisticated information management systems culminating in computerized Materials Requirements Planning(MRP) systems .

As Kiichiro Toyoda, Taiichi Ohno, and others at Toyota looked at this situation in the 1930s, and more intensely just after World War II, it occurred to them that a series of simple innovations might make it more possible to provide both continuity in process flow and a wide variety in product offerings. They therefore revisited Ford’s original thinking, and invented the Toyota Production System.

This system in essence shifted the focus of the manufacturing engineer from individual machines and their utilization, to the flow of the product through the total process. Toyota concluded that by right-sizing machines for the actual volume needed, introducing self-monitoring machines to ensure quality, lining the machines up in process sequence, pioneering quick setups so each machine could make small volumes of many part numbers, and having each process step notify the previous step of its current needs for materials, it would be possible to obtain low cost, high variety, high quality, and very rapid throughput times to respond to changing customer desires. Also, information management could be made much simpler and more accurate.

The thought process of lean was thoroughly described in the book The Machine That Changed the World (1990) by James P. Womack, Daniel Roos, and Daniel T. Jones. In a subsequent volume, Lean Thinking (1996), James P. Womack and Daniel T. Jones distilled these lean principles even further to five:
1. Specify the value desired by the customer
2. Identify the value stream for each product providing that value and challenge all of the wasted steps (generally nine out of ten) currently necessary to provide it
3. Make the product flow continuously through the remaining value-added steps
4. Introduce pull between all steps where continuous flow is possible
5. Manage toward perfection so that the number of steps and the amount of time and information needed to serve the customer continually falls

Lean Today
As these words are written, Toyota, the leading lean exemplar in the world, stands poised to become the largest automaker in the world in terms of overall sales. Its dominant success in everything from rising sales and market shares in every global market, not to mention a clear lead in hybrid technology, stands as the strongest proof of the power of lean enterprise.

This continued success has over the past two decades created an enormous demand for greater knowledge about lean thinking. There are literally hundreds of books and papers, not to mention thousands of media articles exploring the subject, and numerous other resources available to this growing audience.
As lean thinking continues to spread to every country in the world, leaders are also adapting the tools and principles beyond manufacturing, to logistics and distribution, services, retail, healthcare, construction, maintenance, and even government. Indeed, lean consciousness and methods are only beginning to take root among senior managers and leaders in all sectors today.

The Lean Methodology is coming to Oman too. In a series of workshops and discussion sessions for entrepreneurs through the BizHub Coworking space, find out more on their website. I will continue to talk Lean through this blog.

3 most successful ways to capture your creative spirit

Written by Leo Widrich

From all the research I have read, this is the most important thing to take away I found: Every day, everyone of us is extremely creative. The trick is not to optimize for how to spark your creative spirit. The trick is to make sure you capture it, whenever it happens.

Instead of looking for better ways to brainstorm or otherwise come up with ideas, the key is to not let go of the tiny, fragile ones, once they enter our heads.

Here are some of the best ways that some of the most successful people manage to capture their ideas:

Keep a notebook with you at all times, even in the shower
This is by far, the most successful technique to capture more of your creativity every day: a simple notepad. What is extremely difficult, is to keep a notepad with you at all times. If even Richard Branson forgets ideas as quickly as they enter his head, how can we expect to be any different. For that exact reason writing everything down, even if doesn’t seem that important at the time is absolutely crucial says Drew Hansen:

“Don’t judge [your ideas] at this stage, either. There’s a reason they occurred to you this way.”

With that, the emphasis really lies on “all times”. It is easy to bring a notepad to the office or have it lying on our desk. Yet, that’s not when our most creative moments happen. Here are some of the areas where we typically forget to keep a notepad:

In your car
In the gym
Whilst Running
While grocery shopping
In the shower
These are some of the most typical activities where our creative moments happen, capturing them then and there is absolutely crucial. As for the shower, don’t worry, I recently discovered Acqua notes as a great way to capture your ideas:

Plan disengagement and distraction: The outer – inner technique
Similar to what Shelly Carson from Harvard called “the incubation” period, I’m using a technique that has greatly helped me to capture this. I call it the “outer-inner” technique.

I generally start my day with the most important task for Buffer. Say this is a blogpost:

I will do all the research, jot down notes into my word editor and not worry at all about the actual blogpost. That is the first outer task. Then I have a few inner task follow. I will respond to emails, might have a brief chat with the team and do other tasks. Then, towards the end of my day, I get back to the second half of the outer task. I would sit down and then actually write the article, edit pieces and put into publishable form.

The amazing thing that happens is that even I don’t work on the blogpost during my inner tasks, my subconscious brain does. It will do all the work, and then gradually present the solutions to me when I get back to working on it later on.

Overwhelm your brain: Make the task really hard
Another very well researched technique is to overwhelm your brain. Have you ever started to work on a task, where you quickly realised was insanely hard and you will most likely fail solving it? Keep working on it says Robert Epstein.

If you are a programmer, try to solve something you’ve never attempted before and always thought you can only do a lot later in your career, as a writer, write a piece longer then you think you can write. Your brain will be put in a shock situation and naturally engage more of your creative area then it normally would. And although you might not succeed at the task at first, you will find that other tasks will come a lot easier through your increased brain activity then.

Quick last fact: “The left side of our brain manages creativity” myth
Ever since I went to elementary school, I was taught that “For creativity, use your left side of the brain!” Fortunately, that is not at all true:

“In the 1970s, based on studies of split-brain patients, the idea that the right hemisphere “controlled” creativity became very popular, especially in the public’s imagination. This model is now considered overly simplistic and outdated.”

Instead, creativity happens in multiple areas all across our brain, best aligned with the 3D model you can see above.

I tried to bust as many of the common myths around creativity above as possible and I’m sure there is lots more that you’ve discovered in the past! What are your best tips for working creatively? I’d love your thoughts in the comments.

6 Characteristics that may improve entrepreneurial success

Starting a business is risky and consumes your time and money. Luck plays an important role in the success of a business, but it is possible to stack the cards in favor of success. As the founder and leader, development of certain skills may increase your chances of success. Clearly one must have a great business concept! However, even a great concept can fail if the leadership does not develop certain attributes.

It is easy to look at your business model and believe failure is impossible. That confidence is important because it helps retain the positive motivation when negative events come along. Getting through each day requires effectively dealing with the team, partners, investors, and customers. You can improve your chances of succeeding by developing characteristics that are endearing and not those that cause everyone to run away. The following list contains a few areas to consider because the characteristics may increase your chances of succeeding.

1. Charisma:

People evaluate your likability. They want someone that will not turn off investors or prospective partners. The ability to attract a team and solid investors is critical. It is important that people see you as someone they like feel and that they comfortable around you. Add honesty and charisma together and you are on your way.

2. Confidence:

Confidence without excessive arrogance is important. People need to believe in you and your ability to achieve the objectives of the company. Ego often gets in the way and being overconfident starts to look like arrogance. Plenty of leaders are arrogant, but it is easier to get away with this trait after achievement of great success. Maintain your confidence and people will see that you believe accomplishment of the company goals is possible.

3. Salesmanship:

Raising funds, obtaining partners, selling products all require ability to convince people of the value of your offering and close on the sale. Running sales and marketing teams or convincing employees to join the company has sales components. Developing this skill can be most useful.

4. Decisiveness:

No one enjoys working with people that are unable to decide on anything. Inability to make effective decisions can harm your business development. Lost time and money are hard to recover. Failure to decide quickly on critical issues will cause the loss of time and money.

5. Educated risk taker:

Entrepreneurs must take risks but calculated risks are the best. Weighing all the factors leaves one with reduced risk decisions. Nevertheless, risks are part of the game. It is important to weigh all the parameters and make your risky decisions after leaning as much as possible.

6. Leadership & Knowledge:

People will follow an entrepreneur that knows what they are doing. The ability to lead includes the skill of interacting well with others. Good leadership requires knowing what you know and do not know. Develop a great team that fills in your missing skill sets. Then learn to listen to what they have to say. The goal is to develop a great business. Collecting great employees without effective and knowledgeable leadership does not yield the best achievement of the business goals.

You can follow Taffy Williams on Twitter by @twilli2861.

 

حين تشيخ الأنظمة الإدارية

للكاتب:- د.سليمان بن عبد الله السكران

من المعلوم في الهياكل التنظيمية لدورة الأعمال حكومية كانت أو في القطاع الخاص، أنه كلما ازدادت طبقاتها وتشعبت في

تعقيدها، وبالتالي تداخلت صلاحيات بعضها ببعض، فإنها ستؤدي في النهاية إلى زيادة في بيروقراطية العمل وبطء الإنجاز وتدني مستويات المخرج والكفاءة. وهذا سينعكس سلباً على الأداء من الناحية الاقتصادية سواءً كان بطرق مباشرة أو غير مباشرة، إضافة إلى تعزيز إيجاد ثغرات للهدر والفساد الإداري والمالي.

وفي اقتصادنا المحلي - ولنأخذ القطاع الحكومي لكونه الأكثر مشاركة في الناتج المحلي والأطول تاريخية منذ تشكل مؤسسات الدولة وتطور بنياتها التشريعية والتنظيمية، حيث يسعى هذا القطاع العام إلى محاولة زيادة الإصلاح في النظم والمؤسسات والصلاحيات للمصالح الاقتصادية فيما يتماشى مع متغيرات وظروف ومعطيات الاقتصاد، ولذا تنشأ دوائر حكومية جديدة مثلاً أو يخلق نظام أو تنظيم جديد بحسب هذه المتغيرات والمعطيات الجديدة أو المتجدّدة.

إلا أنه من المشاهد أن خلق هذه الدوائر الحكومية والمؤسسات العامة تكون في بعض الأحيان بهدف الوصول إلى غاية إيجابية لتعذر تحقيقها بسبب نظام معين.

ولذا فهي أي هذه المصلحة الحكومية المولودة هي عبارة عن آلية عملية تستخدم كحل للخروج من إشكاليات النظام. والسبب في ذلك أصلاً يعود إلى عدم تحديث بعض النظم والتشريعات بما يتلاءم مع المعطيات الجديدة نظراً لكون التغيير في هذه النظم من أصعب ما يمكن عمله في الإجراءات الحكومية.

وصعوبة التحديث أو التعديل في بعض الأنظمة الحكومية أسبابه عديدة، غير أن منها الثقافة السائدة بعدم التغيير، كما لو كانت نصوص هذه الأنظمة لا يقبل التعرُّض إليها ألبتة.

إن المطلوب دوماً هو كفاءة الأداء التي لا تتحقق بمجرد البحث عن آليات للخروج من حرج نصوص الأنظمة بطريقة تؤدي إلى تعددية في المرجعية أو ترهل في حجم طبقات المسؤولية وما إلى ذلك.

via

http://q8se.blogspot.com/

 

 

ولذا فالمطلب لتحقيق الإنتاجية الفاعلة هو تحديث أو تغيير أو تعديل بعض الأنظمة، خصوصاً أن بعضها لم يعترها تغيير معنوي منذ وضعها، وإلا فسنستمر في مشكلات ما تؤديه عادة الزيادة في الطبقات والتعددية في القرار والصلاحيات في بعض الأحيان بشكل سيزداد معه الهدر الاقتصادي بدلا من تقليله

Free Accounting Software For Entrepreneurs

Hello Entrepreneurs

I have an exceptional accounting software for you. Where you can Do all your accounting and bookkeeping, quickly and easily, and never pay a cent (or a Baiza). Real double-entry accounting that actually makes sense to non-accountants.

Check it out for yourself, and then say a little prayer for me :-)

www.waveapps.com

Stay tuned for more app and software solutions to help you build your business.

Why we have our best ideas in the shower: The science of creativity

Posted on Thursday, February 28th, 2013
Written by Leo Widrich

“I’m not really a creative person”, always struck me as an odd sentence. Could it really be that some of us are born to be more creatively gifted than others?
If so, I thought at first, that’s definitely a downer. In school, what was considered “being creative”, like writing or drawing nice pictures was never my strength.

It bugged me for a while I have to say. For today, I finally decided to research and read up on the latest studies of creativity and the science behind it. The truth, which I was very happy to discover, is that any and everybody is creative. In fact, we are all extremely creative.

And the following science will hopefully prove it, in case you ever had any doubts about your own creativity. After all, creativity, at its very core, boils down to this:

“A creative idea will be defined simply as one that is both novel and useful (or influential) in a particular social setting.” – Alice Flaherty

This applies to every field Flaherty explains, including programming, business, mathematics together with the more traditional “creative” fields, such as music or drawing. And yet, there is still a very distinct process behind it:

Our brain on creativity: The example of free-style rap
So, what is actually active in our brain when we are doing something creatively? That’s always been extremely hard to track as creativity has always been considered a very vague activity. Until recently researchers Allen Braun and Siyuan Liu had a genius idea: Track the brain activity of rappers doing freestyle and turn it into a research study.

Free-style rap is a great example of a creative process that is both relatively easy to track and can be translated into lots of other areas. What they found was fascinating. When we are being creative, some of the everyday brain areas are completely deactivated, whilst others we don’t use in every day lives light up:

“Artists showed lower activity in part of their frontal lobes called the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex during improvisation, and increased activity in another area, called the medial prefrontal cortex. The areas that were found to be ‘deactivated’ are associated with regulating other brain functions.”

To make it a bit more understandable:

“We think what we see is a relaxation of ‘executive functions’ to allow more natural de-focused attention and uncensored processes to occur that might be the hallmark of creativity,” says Braun.

So, the areas in our brain, that we use to make decisions is largely inactive. The “medial prefrontal cortex” area, which is responsible to learn association, context, events and emotional responses however was extremely active on the other hand. This graphic of brain activity probably describes it best:

The reason the above is so fascinating, is that for the first time, there was an activity, that was deeply creative and also fairly straightforward to measure. When I read through some other studies measuring brain activity, it never felt that the people were performing something actually creative.

So it makes a lot of sense to substitute free-style rapping for writing, drawing, solving programming problems and more mentions Braun. That’s why this example is so great. It is also similar to our brain activity whilst we sleep.

Why do we have great ideas in the shower then?
The fact that free-style rapping shows us a high level of creativity, still doesn’t explain why great ideas happen in the shower.

Alice Flaherty, one of the most renowned neuroscientists researching creativity has an answer for us. Another ingredient, that’s very important for us to be creative is dopamine: The more dopamine that is released, the more creative we are, she says:

“People vary in terms of their level of creative drive according to the activity of the dopamine pathways of the limbic system.”

This graphic shows beautifully how dopamine gets taken up by certain brain areas which then get increasingly active and trigger more creative wanderings:

Typical triggers for events, that make us feel great and relaxed and therefore give us an increased dopamine flow are taking a warm shower, exercising, driving home, etc. The chances of having great ideas then are a lot higher.

Still, that’s not all there is to it. Dopamine alone, which gets triggered in hundreds of events, where we aren’t very creative, can’t be the only reason. Another crucial factor is a distraction, says Harvard researcher Carson:

“In other words, a distraction may provide the break you need to disengage from a fixation on the ineffective solution.’’

Especially if you have thought long and hard all day about a problem, jumping into the shower can turn into what scientist call the “incubation period” for your ideas. The subconscious mind has been working extremely hard to solve the problems you face and now that you let your mind wander, it can surface and plant those ideas into your conscious mind.

Lastly, after you have received an influx in dopamine, can be easily distracted by an extremely habitual task like showering or cooking, a relaxed state of mind is absolutely important to be creative, says Jonah Lehrer:

“Why is a relaxed state of mind so important for creative insights? When our minds are at ease–when those alpha waves are rippling through the brain–we’re more likely to direct the spotlight of attention inward, toward that stream of remote associations emanating from the right hemisphere. In contrast, when we are diligently focused, our attention tends to be directed outward, toward the details of the problems we’re trying to solve. While this pattern of attention is necessary when solving problems analytically, it actually prevents us from detecting the connections that lead to insights. ‘That’s why so many insights happen during warm showers,’ Bhattacharya says. ‘For many people, it’s the most relaxing part of the day.’ It’s not until we’re being massaged by warm water, unable to check our e-mail, that we’re finally able to hear the quiet voices in the backs of our heads telling us about the insight. The answers have been their all along–we just weren’t listening.”

So this seems to be the magic combination: If you are in a relaxed state of mind, easy to distract and full of dopamine, your brain is most likely to give you your best, most creative ideas.

معرض الكتاب

إليكم قائمة الكتب التي أرشحها (ترشيح أولي) في إدارة المشاريع الصغيرة وريادة الاعمال...

سأقوم بالاطلاع عليها في المعرض ثم استخلص لكم أفضلها في (ترشيح نهائي). حالياً أرشح الكتب التالية من مكتبتي الخاصة وارقامها في القائمة بالتسلسل المرفق:

(١٠) ستة سيجما: البرنامج الشامل جوف تنانت
الناشر: دار الفاروق للنشر والتوزيع - مصر
المشارك: دار الفاروق للنشر والتوزيع - مصر
سنة النشر: 2008
الجناح : B22-B24

(٢٥) فكر وضاعف ثروتك نابليون هيل
الناشر: دار الفضيلة للنشر والتوزيع والتصدير - مصر
المشارك: دار الفضيلة للنشر والتوزيع والتصدير - مصر
سنة النشر: 2011
الجناح : J12-J13

(٣١) العادات السبع للناس الاكثر فاعلية استفن براند كيفي
الناشر: دار وادى النيل للنشر والتوزيع - مصر
المشارك: مكتبة دار الضياء للنشر والتوزيع - الكويت
سنة النشر: 2011
الجناح : H18

(٤٠) ادر ذاتك كى تدير حياتك ايان ماكديرموت، ايان شيركور
الناشر: مكتبة جرير - السعودية - السعودية
المشارك: مكتبة جرير - السعودية - السعودية
سنة النشر: 2011
الجناح : G7-G9

لنا عودة ان شاء الله...

الدولار والخليج …. وحساب الأرباح والخسائر

كُتب يوم 22 يناير, 2012
بقلم: الدكتور ناصر بن غيث

على الرغم من الأثر السلبي الكبير المتوقع من خطة «التيسير الكمي» التي وضعها «الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأمريكي» لشراء ما مقدراه 600 مليار دولار من سندات الخزينة الأمريكية متوسطة الأجل بمعدل 75 مليار دولار شهرياً، وعلى الرغم من ردة الفعل التي خرجت من أصول الدبلوماسية الدولية من قبل الشركاء التجاريين الرئيسين للولايات المتحدة، إلا أن دول الخليج لاتزال تصر على أن سياسة ربط عملاتها الوطنية بالدولار، وكذلك تقويم وربط أسعار ومبيعات النفط بالدولار، قرار استراتيجي صائب، مستبعدة بذلك أي إمكانية لمراجعة هذه السياسة،

لعل من المعلوم لدى المتابعين للشأن الخليجي والعلاقات التي تربط دوله بالقوى الدولية، خصوصاً الولايات المتحدة، أن قرار ربط العملات الخليجية قرار يتجاوز الاقتصاد إلى السياسة، بمعنى أنه قرار يقوم على اعتبارات سياسية واستراتيجية أولاً، ومن ثم اعتبارات اقتصادية، ولما يزيد على الثلاثين عاماً لم يكن هناك تعارض حقيقي بين الاعتبارات السياسية والاقتصادية في ما يتعلق بالسياسات النقدية لدول الخليج، وذلك لكون الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية الشريك التجاري والاقتصادي الأول لدول الخليج، إضافة إلى كونها الحليف الاستراتيجي الأبرز إن لم يكن الوحيد، إلى جانب أن الدولار كان العملة الأولى للاقتصاد العالمي، وعملة الاحتياط العالمية الأقوى بالرغم من تراجع نظام «بريتون وودز» نتيجة تخلي الولايات المتحدة عن قاعدة الذهب التي وفرت درجة كبيرة من الاستقرار للدولار، وأسهمت في تربعه على قمة العملات، كما أن تناغم الدورات الاقتصادية في دول الخليج والولايات المتحدة الأمريكية أسهم كذلك في تقليل التكلفة الاقتصادية وتعظيم العائد من عملة الربط بالدولار.

لكن ومع تغير الأوضاع الدولية والأوضاع الداخلية لدول الخليج فقد بدأت تكلفة ربط العملات الخليجية بالدولار في الارتفاع إلى درجة قد تصل إلى مستوى تفوق فيه الفائدة من هذا الربط، الأمر الذي أدى إلى ارتفاع الأصوات من داخل دول الخليج ومن خارجها داعية إلى أن وقت فك هذه الارتباط قد حان، فمن ناحية فإن تراجع الاقتصاد الأمريكي وارتفاع الدين العام والخارجي أدى ذلك إلى دخول أسعار صرف الدولار في منحنى هبوطي متواصل، ما أدى إلى ضعفه ومن ثم إضعاف العملات المرتبطة به ومن ضمنها العملات الخليجية،

إضافة إلى ذلك فقد أدى تراجع قيمة الدولار كذلك إلى تراجع العوائد الحقيقية لمبيعات النفط المقومة بالدولار، ومن ناحية أخرى فقد بدأت الدورة الاقتصادية للولايات المتحدة في الابتعاد عن مثيلاتها في دول الخليج، بمعنى أنه عندما يكون الاقتصاد الأمريكي في مرحلة التراجع تكون الاقتصادات الخليجية في مرحلة النمو، حيث إن الاقتصاد الأمريكي -مع بداية القرن الجديد- بدأ يعاني من تراجع وركود مزمنين بعد انفجار ما أصبح يعرف بفقاعة التقنية (com Bubble)، ما دفع السلطات الأمريكية إلى اتباع سياسة نقدية تضخمية وذلك بخفض سعر الفائدة والإبقاء عليها عند مستويات منخفضة (قريبة من الصفر) لفترة طويلة، في حين أن اقتصادات دول الخليج بدأت تشهد مرحلة نمو غير مسبوقة بفضل الطفرة الكبيرة في أسعار النفط، ما جلب ذلك مستويات عالية من معدلات التضخم، ما تطلب سياسة نقدية انكماشية وأسعار فائدة عالية، لكن وبسبب ارتباط العملات الخليجية مع الدولار- الأمر الذي يتطلب تناغم السياسة النقدية- فقد عجزت دول الخليج عن محاربة التضخم، الذي بلغ في بعض دول الخليج ما يزيد على 25 بالمئة، أو الإبقاء عليه عند مستويات معتدلة، وبذلك تكون تكلفة ربط العملات الخليجية بالدولار قد زادت من ثلاثة أوجه، الأول ارتفاع أسعار الواردات القادمة من الاتحاد الأوروبي وآسيا، والثاني تراجع قيمة الصادرات (النفط والغاز) المقومة بالدولار، والثالث العجز عن مكافحة التضخم الناشئ من معدلات النمو العالية.

ونتيجة هذه التطورات، إضافة إلى سعي دول الخليج الحثيث إلى تنويع مصادر دخلها وتقليل اعتمادها على عوائد النفط والغاز، فإن من مصلحة دول الخليج أن تكون لها سياسة نقدية مستقلة أولاً، وعملات أو عملة قوية ثانياً، وفي ما يتعلق بالسياسة النقدية المستقلة فلا شك أن السياسة النقدية تعتبر اليوم إحدى أهم الأدوات التي تملكها الحكومات لإدارة الاقتصاد الحديث –وذلك رغم اتفاقنا من عدمه على ذلك- كما أنها تعتبر كذلك من أهم الأدوات العلاجية للتعامل مع المشاكل والأمراض التي يعاني منها الاقتصاد الحديث مثل الركود والتضخم والبطالة وتراجع الإنتاجية والتنافسية وغيرها من المشاكل سواء الآنية الطارئة أو الهيكلية المزمنة.

إن تنويع مصادر الدخل في دول الخليج يحتاج إلى اتخاذ العديد من الإجراءات، من ضمنها إجراءات تتعلق بالسياسة النقدية للتحكم في أسعار صرف العملات أو العملة الخليجية، إذ من المعلوم لكي تتمكن دول الخليج من تنويع مصادر الدخل لديها فلابد من تطوير وتنمية قطاعات وصناعات جديدة، ولتنمية هذه القطاعات لابد من توفير نوع من الدعم والحماية لها ولفترة معينة تتمكن بعدها من المنافسة على المستوى الدولي، وبما أن لدول الخليج أعضاء في منظمة التجارة العالمية التي تفرض الكثير من القيود على الدول في ما يتعلق بالسياسات الحمائية التجارية مثل رفع معدلات الضرائب الجمركية أو تقديم أي شكل من أشكال المعونات أو الدعم أو المعاملة التفضيلية للسلع والخدمات الوطنية على حساب السلع الأجنبية، فإن السياسات النقدية تكتسب أهمية خاصة كونها الأداة الوحيدة المتاحة لحماية ودعم القطاعات والصناعات الخليجية الوليدة، وذلك من خلال التحكم في أسعار الصرف لإكساب هذه الصناعات أفضلية تنافسية على السلع الأجنبية المنافسة، إضافة إلى استقلالية السياسة أو السياسات النقدية الخليجية،

كما أن من مصلحة الدول الخليجية كذلك –على المدى القصير والمتوسط على الأقل – أن تكون لها عملات أو عملة قوية وذلك لسببين، الأول كونها مستوردة صافية (Net Importer)، والثاني كون صادراتها الرئيسة (النفط والغاز) لا تتأثر بأسعار الصرف، فبالنسبة إلى السبب الأول فإنه من المعلوم لدى الجميع أن دول الخليج تستورد مجمل احتياجاتها من سلع أولية أو متوسطة أو تامة التصنيع، ولذلك فإن العملات الخليجية القوية ستنعكس على تكلفة الواردات التي ستكون منخفضة، ما سينعكس على التضخم الداخلي الذي سيكون منخفضاً بدوره أولاً على رفاهية المواطنين، وثانياً على استقرار الاقتصادات الخليجية، وثالثاً على تنافسيتها وجاذبيتها للاستثمار الأجنبي، هذا في ما يتعلق بالسبب الأول، أما السبب الثاني فمن المعلوم أن صادرات الدول الخليجية –التي يأتي النفط والغاز في مقدمتها- لا تتأثر كثيراً بأسعار صرف عملاتها مقابل عملات الدول المستوردة كون السلع الأساسية في الصادرات هي النفط والسلع البتروكيماوية التي يتميز الطلب عليها بعدم المرونة، بمعنى أنها من السلع الأساسية التي عادة ما يبقى الطلب عليها في مستوياته المعتادة بغض النظر عن ارتفاع أسعارها أو تراجعها، مثل الدواء مثلاً والذي لا يرتبط مستوى الطلب عليه بأسعاره بقدر ما يرتبط بالحاجة إليه، والحاجة إلى النفط في ازدياد مستمر بسبب النمو السكاني والاقتصادي الكبير في الكثير من الدول، خصوصاً الاقتصادات الناشئة

هذا من ناحية، ومن ناحية أخرى بسبب النماذج الاقتصادية التي تتبناها معظم دول العالم، خصوصاً الدول الصناعية والدول الصاعدة والتي تقوم على فرضية تقول إن للاقتصاد قابلية النمو اللامنتهي أو ما يعرف بالنمو الجذري (Exponential Growth) الذي يفترض كذلك النمو اللامنتهي في عرض عوامل الإنتاج التي تأتي مصادر الطاقة في مقدمتها، الأمر الذي يعني في المحصلة أن ارتفاع أسعار النفط لن يؤثر –بصورة مباشرة أو آنية على الأقل- في الطلب عليه، حيث إن ذلك سيرفع من العوائد سواء الاسمية أو الحقيقية.

وفي المحصلة فقد تكون سياسة ربط العملات الخليجية بالدولار أسهمت في توفير الاستقرار الاقتصادي الذي كان يحتاجه الاقتصاد الخليجي الذي كان يمر بمرحلة البناء، لكن ومع تغير الكثير من الظروف سواء الدولية أو ظروف اقتصادات دول الخليج التي تحولت من مرحلة البناء إلى مرحلة الاستدامة التي تتطلب درجة معينة من التنوع، فإن تكاليف هذه السياسة قد تكون وصلت إلى مرحلة تعادل التكلفة والعائد إن لم تكن التكلفة قد تجاوزت العائد بالفعل، ولعل تبني العملة الخليجية الموحدة تمثل الفرصة المؤاتية لتكون لدول الخليج عملتها الموحدة، بل والأهم سياستها النقدية المستقلة.

منقول عن مقالة نشرت في مجلة الرؤية الإقتصادية في ديسمبر 2010

Recommended Read: Strategic Renewal in the Business Model

Posted on February 6, 2013
by Rowan Gibson

In a world where the pace of change has gone hypercritical, today’s most important race is the race for strategic renewal. It is the race to change as fast as the environment is changing around you; the race to invent new sources of profit before the old ones disappear; and the race to reinvent your strategy and your business model before they become obsolete. Most companies tend to postpone this work of strategic renewal based on the old notion that “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” Yet we’re finding out that long-successful business models can now get broken almost overnight. Recent examples would be Kodak, Nokia and RIM.

So what exactly is strategic renewal? It’s the act of dynamically adjusting business models and strategies to the deep changes at work in the external environment. Above all else, this requires innovation. In a 2003 article in Harvard Business Review entitled “The Quest for Resilience”, Gary Hamel wrote, “Strategic renewal is creative reconstruction.” It’s about taking your traditional business model apart and looking for imaginative ways to reconstruct it to create significant new value for your customers and your company. This becomes all the more urgent in our fast-changing times, when customer needs and market conditions swiftly and dramatically change. A good example is Netflix’s rapid shift from DVD rental to streaming, which was covered excellently in an article on this site posted last week by Adam Hartung (And the Winner is – Netflix!).

What every company can and should do – right now! – is organize a serious, high-level strategy forum to start rethinking their business from the customer backward. IBM expressed this best in a fantastic advertising slogan they used a few years ago:

“Stop selling what you have. Start selling what they need!”

The absolute worst thing your company can do is to assume you can just continue to sell the same old product or service to the same old customers in the same old way – and at the same old price. Instead, you need to get busy working out how your customers’ priorities may be changing, and quickly realign your business model to address their new needs.

In my keynote speeches and strategy workshops, I teach companies to unpack their business model into five components:

- who you serve

- what you provide

- how you provide it

- how you make money

- how you differentiate and sustain an advantage

Then I show them how to radically rethink each component using the ‘Four Lenses of Innovation’ – the cutting-edge ideation methodology outlined in my book “Innovation to the Core”. So I get the strategy teams to:

1. Challenge deeply-held orthodoxies about who their customers are, how they interact with them, how they define their products or services, how they configure the value chain, and so on

2. Harness emergent trends and discontinuities to substantially change the way things are done in their industry

3. leverage core competencies and strategic assets in novel ways to generate new growth

4. Understand and address deep customer needs that are currently going unmet

Isn’t it time you subjected your own business model to some ‘creative reconstruction’, aimed at making it better suited to today’s shifting customer needs and new economic realities?

And Today's Advice For Entrepreneurs Is.....

 

Love Your Enemies

They Will Help You Develop the Skills & Patience Needed to Build Bridges & Cross Over Them...

Posted with Blogsy